"Inflate or die"

"Inflate or die." That's been the story for years. But today if you continue to inflate you're dealing with a global market and powerful creditors. Our number one creditor is China. China holds a staggering $2.3 trillion in reserves, 70% of which are US securities. China is looking at US money creation (inflation), and wondering what to do about it. Here's an idea - why doesn't China buy up the US with China's ever-growing hoard of US dollars? Wait, maybe they're doing it - this year, for the first time in history, China spent more buying US assets than the US spent buying Chinese assets. Ah well, as one jokester put it, it's going to be tough when Chinese families have American house-boys.

Below is the dire picture from the viewpoint of Austrian economics.

The Austrian Monetary Theory of the Trade Cycle offers a political-economic explanation of why an economy's debt-to-GDP ratio may rise over time. Output gains fall short of the government-sponsored circulation credit growth rate. With this in mind, it might be insightful to briefly recall the so-called "debt dynamics."

If an economy's debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is allowed to rise further and further, interest rates must keep declining so that borrowers do not default on their debt. In the short-run, lower rates might prevent widespread bankruptcy. However, a policy of pushing interest rates down would by no means offer a solution to the underlying problem.

In fact, an artificial lowering of interest rates through the central bank would represent the very process that Austrians consider a perpetuation of the fateful expansion of circulation credit that must end in a collapse of the monetary system.

Russell's Comment - For the sake of argument, let's say the Austrians are correct, and in the future we face a collapse of the monetary system. What then? If the current monetary system collapses, nobody will know what any currency is worth. In that event, I'd want to be 100% in gold. The reason is - as the monetary system moves ever-closer to collapse (distrust), people will turn to the one currency that has been trusted and hoarded since Biblical times, and, of course, I'm referring to gold.

If your nation's currency is losing purchasing power and is being devalued, how much is gold worth in terms of your currency? The answer is, in that case, the price of gold is open-ended in your currency, since you will pay any amount in your fading currency to obtain money of unchallenged value. What's a life-saver worth to a drowning man? Answer - It's worth everything he owns.

Comments - There's no question about it, the stock averages are pushing higher. In view of that, there are two questions that might be asked. (1) Take the move at face value. Is the market correctly discounting better times ahead? I believe this is the widely-held view. The market's function is to discount. Therefore, the market is now discounting better times ahead.

But what if we are experiencing a bear market advance? Following the 1929 market crash, which ended in November 1929, a huge rally occurred. By April 27, 1930, the rally had recovered over 50% of the ground lost during the 1929 crash. Many investors bought the '29-'30 rally on the thesis that "the worst is over" and that better times lie ahead. Many thought it a resumption of the bull market.

(2) The great counter-trend rally ended in April 1930 at 294 in the Dow. Following the rally, the market turned down and the Great Depression began. The lesson - rallies in bear markets don't necessarily reflect good times ahead. And that's about where we are now.

When life is a puzzle, I like to go back to fundamentals. The most basic of fundamentals (Dow Theory) is that the market runs from extremes of overvaluation (where I believe it is now) to extremes of undervaluation, a place where it has not been since the early 1980s.

And the question is - are we now on the long winding path to extreme undervaluation? I really think that's what's happening now. And I ask myself, how does this help us with positioning ourselves for the coming years?

First, if equities are headed (over time) toward undervaluation, I don't want to be loaded with common stocks. I'm not a trader so holding stocks, even top-grade blue chips, is not the way I want to go.

As for money instruments (bonds, notes, bills), I think as the dollar sinks over time, interest rates (now abnormally low) will head higher. That leaves out bonds as an investment as far as I'm concerned. Besides, if I hold a bond yielding 4%, and over the next year the dollar drops 5%, I'm out money, and I'm out purchasing power.

So where does that leave me? It leaves me holding as much in the way of precious metals (particularly gold) as I'm comfortable with. So half of all my liquid assets are in gold. But I don't want to put all my liquid assets in gold, because in investing nothing is guaranteed. The other half of my liquid assets I'm going to leave in dollars, because that will give me time to think, and hopefully, over the next six months to a year the situation will clarify.

This may be the time to repeat an old Russell aphorism. "In a primary bear market, everyone loses, and the winner is the one who loses the least."

A final thought. As I read my voluminous daily and weekly material, it occurs to me that most investors and most analysts are viewing the current situation as a "bothersome, temporary patch" that should, within a few years, give way to normalcy, and I'm talking about the "old normal." In other words, after a year or so "this too shall pass" and stocks should be heading higher again as they usually do once we return to the good old normal days.

I think almost everybody's on that side of the boat. But it's not going to happen. That's the Warren Buffett optimistic view, "Don't sell America short. Stocks go up over the long haul."

I believe too many people are on the optimistic side of the boat. The boat is about to list the other way. The unexpected trend would be a long journey towards deleveraging, devaluation and deflation, all leading to an even more recession or depression.

You say "it can't happen here." Maybe so, but I'm not playing it that way. In the investment business anything can happen, and it's been almost three decades since we've experienced a great bear market bottom, during which stocks sell at extreme undervaluation. As far as I know, there's never been a period this long without the appearance of a great bear market bottom.

(from ww2.dowtheoryletters.com, January 23, 2010)

ZIRP, Deflation and Elevated Risk

Japan was the pioneer of a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) after experiencing decade-long bouts with recession. Now, the rest of the developed world has followed.

Since late 2007, the U.S. has cut its benchmark overnight lending rate by 5 percentage points to 0.25 percent. The UK chopped its rate by 5.25 percentage points to 0.50 percent. Switzerland, Canada, Japan all sit at or near zero interest rates. And the Eurozone followed, slowly but surely, whittling rates down from 4.25 percent to 1 percent — and moving its key deposit rates down to near zero.

Even after aggressive rate cuts and other efforts by central banks to pump money into their economies and despite all of the chatter about the Fed’s plans to deal with future inflation … deflation remains the problem, not inflation.

Prices are falling in half of the twenty largest economies in the world!

For instance, as you can see in the chart below, year-over-year prices in the U.S. have fallen the most in 60 years.

Source: Bloomberg

In Germany, deflation has hit for the first time in 22 years. And it doesn’t stop there: Consumer prices in Japan, China, France, Spain, Canada, Switzerland, Ireland, Hong Kong and Singapore are falling.

And just this week: Italy joined the ranks, reporting its first drop in prices since 1959 … Japan reported a continued fall in prices … and the Eurozone recorded its biggest price drop on record.

Many think that the central banks, particularly the Fed, have done too much tinkering with the money supply spigot, consequently setting a date with runaway inflation.

The Fed’s job is not easy: Stimulate growth while keeping inflation in check.

But my question is this: Have central banks done enough with interest rates to stop prices from moving lower and to get economic growth back on track?

Contrary to all of the attention that has been placed on plans for removing monetary stimulus, the popular Taylor rule in economics suggests that interest rates in the U.S. should be much lower … well into negative territory. In fact, Goldman Sachs sees the appropriate level for short-term rates at minus 5.8 percent.

Since official interest rates are already near zero, does that mean the global printing presses will have to continue running? Does this rule imply that we can expect more severe deflation ahead?

During the Great Depression, prices fell for four straight years. For two of those years, prices were down 10 percent. But in the world of fiat currencies, central banks have the ammunition of the printing press to fend off such a nasty downward spiral.

However, with increasing global debt burdens, central banks are also scrutinized under a microscope and face massive political forces that may limit the firing of their ammunition.

This changing dynamic from inflation to deflation in a zero-interest-rate world creates interesting global yield comparisons when adjusted for prices. Of course nominal interest rates in major economies are virtually zero. But when normalized, to adjust for deflation (or inflation for some countries), the real yields paint a very different picture. In fact, in stark contrast to what most might expect, the U.S. and Japan join China and Brazil in having the highest real interest rates among the world’s largest countries.

Source: Bloomberg

And with global investors starved for yield, these countries with relative yield advantages, especially those bolstered with the additional advantage of liquidity and relative safety should attract capital.
Most importantly, their currencies should benefit!

"It's not nice to fool mother nature" - Chiffon Margarine commercial, 1972

What Fed can and cannot control - a nice paper from Hillier Advisors discussing short-term deflation

Hillier Advisors September 2009

Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom," Prechter Says: Why That's Not Such Good News

by Peter Gorenstein in Newsmakers, Commodities

Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, UUP, UDN, TBT, GLD, SLV

Forget all the talk about the dollar being in terminal decline. The recent rally in the greenback is for real, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. The man who correctly predicted the 1987 crash and last year's peak in oil prices now says we're "going to be up for a year or two in the dollar."

Reuters and other mainstream news outlets attribute the recent uptick in the dollar versus other major currencies to an improving economy signaled by Friday's "stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers." Prechter, ever the contrarian, says the U.S. dollar has put in a major bottom but not for the reasons everyone else is pointing to.

Prechter points to three factors:

• The Elliott Wave Pattern: Without getting too technical (for your sake and mine) Elliott Wave Theory looks at markets cycles in terms of wave structures that come in five parts. Five waves up followed by five waves down. Well, according to Prechter's research the pattern confirms we recently hit the fifth wave down. Next stop: up.
• Sentiment has reached an extreme: "The Dollar Sentiment Index for the Dollar Index reports just 3% bulls among traders, an extreme level only five times in the past 20 years, usually near an important low," Prechter wrote on Aug. 5. "The last time we saw readings like this was March-July 2008, just before the dollar soared." In other words, the "short the dollar" trade is overly crowded.
• The biggest risk to the economy is deflation not inflation: As he lays out in his book, Conquer the Crash, Prechter thinks the bursting of the latest bubble will lead to a major economic depression.

As we discuss in forthcoming segments, this good news for the dollar spells bad news for most other asset classes including stocks, commodities and real estate.