Showing posts with label Jean-Claude Trichet. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jean-Claude Trichet. Show all posts

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Bruce Krasting: The Swiss Did It!?

Swiss National Bank President, Phillip Hillebrand, in an interview with the Neue Zuricher Zeitung, May 8, 2010:

“We will not allow that the euro zone problems and an excessive rise in the franc to lead to deflation in Switzerland. That defines our policy with regards to the exchange rate. The bank will act in a decisive manner if needed.”

There has been a lot of speculation in the past 48 hours on who did what in the FX markets as far as intervention is concerned. The Treasury Department has a “no comment”. The ECB and the SNB have been mum. I will stick my neck out and say it was the Swiss that did it. A two-day chart of Euro/CHF:



The two vertical lines are evidence of market intervention. That is not just short covering. This was a size buyer that did not care if the execution was sloppy. It looks to me like an effort at “shock and awe”. Some thoughts:

-As of 3/31/2010 the SNB had Euro 53b in reserves. They reported that these holdings had a mark to market loss for the Q of CHF3.1b ($2.9b). The NZZ has reported that SNB purchased an additional Euro10b in April. It should therefore come as no surprise that the SNB bought more Euros and sold more CHF in the past day and a half.

-The graph shows that the FX rate was just a tad above 1.40 for a few days prior to the blow up. I suspect that this was the SNB providing support to the market on an ongoing basis. These are stabilizing efforts. It is a “containment" policy it is not “shock and awe”.

-The night of the Merkel “no trading” rules the Euro/$ hit a new low. Logically there would have been pressure on the Euro/CHF. But it held. Here I suspect that “resting orders” were in place to continue the containment.

-Watching the market on Wednesday I concluded that there were three separate rounds of intervention in the E/CHF. Each resulted in a spike in the rate and then a resumption of trading. The end result was a 2% backup. That is a big move in this cross. This activity all took place during peak European and NY FX markets. At that time there are thousands of players. The market is deep and big numbers can get done. The intervention required to move the market this much would have to be more than Euro 5b.

-The E/CHF rate was fairly quite today. Until 2 pm. Then another demand driven gap upward. I saw no reason in the other markets for this gap. If a “real” market player wanted/needed to buy size E/CHF they would not have done it a half-hour before the futures close. This stinks of “Shock and Awe”.

-The E/CHF market is a derivative of the $/Euro and $/CHF. To unwind demand for E/CHF one could buy $/CHF and sell $/Euro. The crosses have to match out with the cash prices. During European trading the CHF crosses all have big floats. But in late NY markets they do not. So if a big buyer of E/CHF appears it will result in a seller of $/Euro. (Demand for Euro). This explains why the E/$ rate went ballistic this afternoon.

But why? I am not sure. There could be many motives at play.

The SNB had every reason to intervene. They said they would and they did. They did what they have been doing for months. But in my opinion the shock and awe of the last few days is very atypical of the SNB. The question is, “Were they asked to change their strategy?”

The ECB has shown their hand. They have not actively intervened during European markets. If they had we would know about it. The ECB would have announced their efforts publicly. The job of the ECB is to manage a downward path for the Euro. They are well aware of the collateral damage to the other markets a weak Euro could cause. They need a weaker Euro, but they can’t afford a collapse of the bond/equity market. So Trichet calls up Hillebrand and says,

JCT: “Do us a favor. Make a very big bid in the E/CHF. This will help us out against the dollar, pound and Yen.” Hillebrand could have said,

PH: “Okay, we will step up to the plate over the next few days. First in Europe and the next day we will attack the weak Chicago market. But here is the deal, The ECB has to cover our losses. We'll roll them for you at Libor +2.”

JCT: “We’ll cover the losses. It doesn’t matter any more. Go out and kill some wolves for us.” (Heard muttering in the background: “Cheap Swiss”)

There is a Fed NY role in this. All Central Banks talk to each other (they also call big market makers). For me it is not possible for the SNB to have done anything in the NY trading hours without the knowledge, advice and consent of the NY Fed. This scares me a bit. We are in very nervous times. There has been no public statement of any intervention. So this is the stealth variety. I am not suggesting that the NYFed did anything today or yesterday. But if the SNB did, they had a chat:

SNB: “We are thinking of calling JPM in NY and putting in a market order to buy up to 3b E/CHF. What do you think?:

NYF: “Swell idea. The S&P is in the dumper. We are getting calls from all over. If you bid for size it will roll into the dollar market and bid up the Euro across the board. Is that what you want?”

SNB: “We are after the wolves today.”

NYF: “Suits us, Have at em. But one suggestion, do it at 2 pm. A few weeks ago a size order in Chicago at 2:30 caused a 10% micro burst in equities. Maybe you can do that again today. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if we actually killed a whole pack of wolves!

I don’t have a pipeline into the NYFed, the ECB or the SNB. This "take" on the market action in the past few days just lines up with the facts. If I am right, there are a few conclusions.

-The monetary authorities are very worried and are willing to use aggressive strategies to calm instability.

-Using the SNB as a single source of global currency intervention will not work for long. The ECB and the Fed are playing weak hands. They know if they intervene and fail it is lights out. So their active/visible participation is a last resort option.

-Another chapter in this story will be written soon. Possibly this weekend.


(from Bruce Krasting's blog, May 20, 2010)

Monday, May 10, 2010

ECB's “nuclear option”

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Ben Levisohn

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- The euro weakened against the dollar, losing gains after an unprecedented loan package announced by European leaders for the region’s most-indebted members.

The yen rose against higher-yielding currencies as lingering concern about Europe’s sovereign crisis boosted demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge. The European Central Bank said yesterday it will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt, adding to signs the central bank will keep interest rates low.

“The debt crisis remains unsolved on a mid- to long-term perspective,” said Satoru Ogasawara, a foreign-exchange analyst and economist in Tokyo at Credit Suisse AG. “There’s still a risk that the crisis may spread from Greece to Spain and Portugal. The loan package has ended the recent panic sell of the euro, but the euro will struggle to climb from here.”

The euro traded at $1.2770 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.2787 in New York yesterday, when it soared as much as 2.7 percent. Europe’s single currency closed at $1.2755 on May 7 before the aid package was announced. The currency declined to 118.54 yen after rising 2.1 percent yesterday to 119.28 yen. The dollar fell to 92.83 yen from 93.29 yen.

The euro has lost 7.5 percent this year, based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indices. The dollar has gained 5.1 percent, while the yen has risen 5.3 percent.

Governments of the 16-euro nations agreed yesterday to lend as much as 750 billion euros ($958 billion) to the most-indebted countries in the region.

The European Central Bank said in a statement it will intervene in government and private bond markets “to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional,” and central banks in Germany, Italy and France began buying government bonds yesterday. The ECB restarted a dollar-swap line with the Federal Reserve.

By resorting to what some economists have called the “nuclear option,” the ECB may open itself to the charge it’s undermining its independence by helping governments plug budget holes. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the move wasn’t supported by all 22 of its Governing Council members.

Saturday, May 8, 2010

Eurozone In "State Of Emergency" As Leaders Establish A New Crisis Fund For Troubled Countries



European leaders launched plans Saturday to create a new crisis fund aimed at all troubled euro countries, as the Greek debt chaos put the eurozone into a "state of emergency."

The 16 heads of the countries that share the euro currency said they want to build an emergency fund for countries targeted by powerful bond markets, after the region's debt mountain sent global bourses tumbling and triggered alarm from the US to Asia.

"Between now and Sunday night we will have a watertight line of defence in the eurozone," declared euro finance Chief Jean-Claude Juncker.

The leaders, meeting in Brussels, also agreed to impose new curbs on speculators blamed for sustained and deliberate attacks.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the "stabilisation" fund would send "a very clear signal" to market speculators to back off.

A decision to "accelerate" public deficit reduction plans and "reinforce" rules limiting room for manoeuvre on broken budgets came after they concluded a much-vaunted deal to loan debt-addled Greece 80 billion euros (just over 100 billion dollars) over three years.

A meeting of all 27 European Union finance ministers, tasked with setting up the fund worth scores of billions of euros, was hastily arranged for Sunday in Brussels to deal with what French President Nicolas Sarkozy called a "systemic crisis."

"We are now at the stage of community mechanism, it is the whole eurozone that needs to defend itself," through "general mobilisation," the French leader said.

"There is no doubt that the eurozone is going through the most serious crisis since its creation," he underlined.

The leaders acknowledged, during their late-night crisis summit at the

EU headquarters in Brussels, that the scale of the problem had gone way beyond Greece.

Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi told his peers that the 11-year-old shared currency area was in a "state of emergency" and exceptional measures were required.

What began as concern over fraudulent financial reporting in Athens, and escalated to deadly riots in Athens against austerity measures, has now turned potentially into a stand-off between euro nations and markets that have been resolutely unimpressed by EU action to date.

Greek premier George Papandreou said the talks "re-confirmed that the need to safeguard the eurozone goes beyond Greece's problems."

Papandreou also said the transfer billions of euros of crisis loans was imminent.

"In the following days, Greece will receive the first tranche of the 110 billion euros from the EU and the IMF," Papandreou said. "This will allow us to implement our (austerity) programme and our reforms."

Saturday's sweeping decisions came after the United States, Japan and Canada relayed their growing concerns, via the G7 forum, to France, Germany, Italy and non-eurozone Britain, which is itself heavily indebted.

US President Barack Obama himself spoke with German Chancellor Merkel, and called for a "strong policy response" extending to the wider "international community."

Sources stressed that talks on an idea for the European Commission to pour up to 70 billion euros into a reserve pool would require the European Central Bank's agreement, given its politically independent status.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet said the summit's outcome was "excellent," but underlined: "I don't want to make any comment, this mechanism is the responsibility of the EU council (of leaders) and of the European Commission."

Currently 13 of the 16 currency partners are under excessive deficit surveillance, having breached set guidelines.

Parliamentary and legal manoeuvres needed to sign off on an unprecedented 110-billion-euro (145-billion-dollar) bailout for debt-laden Greece, backed by the IMF, were largely completed in advance of the talks in Brussels.

However, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd said markets had already judged Greek bailout action "inadequate" after stocks plummeted in Asia and on Wall Street, the euro plumbed a 14-month low against the dollar and Japan said it would need to plough more than 20 billion dollars into shaken Asian financial markets.

UPDATE: ADDITION:

Eurozone leaders have agreed to put emergency measures in place before the financial markets open again to prevent the debt crisis in Greece spreading to other countries.

During a late-night summit in Brussels, the 16 heads of the single currency countries said they were ready to take whatever steps were required to protect the stability of the euro area.

The leaders agreed to set up a crisis fund for all members to dip into in times of financial difficulty.

They also pledged to take "all measures needed" to speed up the process of reining in their national debts.

And they promised to strengthen financial governance, with tighter economic surveillance, more closely co-ordinated policies and more rigid rules on debt and deficit levels.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the "stabilisation" fund would send "a very clear signal" to market speculators to back off.

Belgium's outgoing Prime Minister Yves Leterme added that the mechanism would be ready by "the end of the weekend".

The leaders had been accused of heightening market uncertainty with a lack of action on euro members with high deficits or debts and low economic growth.

Stock markets around the world fell sharply this week because of fears that Greece's debt problems would halt the global economic recovery.

The US, Japan and Canada expressed their growing concerns to France, Germany, Italy and Britain during a G7 conference call on Friday.

Barack Obama also spoke to Ms Merkel, calling for a "strong policy response" extending to the wider "international community".

The 110bn euro (£95bn) bail-out of Greece was formally signed off at the crisis talks, with the eurozone to provide 80bn (£69bn) over three years and the IMF offering a further 30bn (£26bn).

All 27 EU finance ministers, who have been given the task of setting up the crisis fund, will meet on Sunday in Brussels to approve the special measures.

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UPDATE:

EURO-ZONE LEADERS early this morning opened the door for the immediate creation of a permanent rescue fund for distressed euro countries and for the European Central Bank to buy government bonds.

At a summit last night, they directed the European Commission to produce proposals this weekend which the governments of the 16 euro-zone countries hope to endorse at an emergency meeting of finance ministers tomorrow.

“The hour of truth has struck for the euro zone,” French president Nicolas Sarkozy said moments after the four-hour meeting broke up.

After a fresh wave of turmoil ripped through global markets yesterday, the euro governments agreed to step up their efforts to fight sovereign debt “contagion” as ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet and Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso each warned that the single currency is in the grip of a “systemic problems” due to Greece’s debt crisis.

The leaders said that they “fully support” the ECB in its action to ensure the euro area’s stability.

“Everyone in the euro area is totally supportive of our currency, will defend the currency obviously and we fully support the ECB in what it is doing in that respect,” Taoiseach Brian Cowen told reporters.

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ANALYSIS:

The European Central Bank is poised to take a big step into the unknown – buying government debt from euro countries, writes ARTHUR BEESLEY

THE EU/IMF rescue plan for Greece was designed to extinguish doubt about its ability to repay massive debts.

The country has been saved from the abyss, at a huge cost to its people, but the brush with insolvency intensified anxiety that other euro countries would require aid.

As the leaders of the 16 euro zone countries descended on Brussels last night to take stock of the debacle, they met against the backdrop of mounting fear that the Greek crisis could go global. Their “unprecedented” deal to underwrite Athens to the tune of €110 billion was struck only last Sunday – an ad hoc solution to a gaping hole in the country’s finances.

The intervention, the first such rescue in the euro zone, was designed to puncture market pressure. But it did no such thing. Instead of calming fears, the plan was followed by a cascade of turmoil that sent world markets tumbling throughout the week.

Under most pressure were Spain and Portugal, whose heavy debt dependence has led to fears that they might ultimately need help.

Ireland, too, felt the force of pressure on its borrowing costs, which had declined as the Government undertook a series of painful austerity measures to regain control over the public finances.

From Berlin, Paris and Brussels the renewed turmoil met with predictable series of attacks on market “speculators”, who stood accused of ignoring economic fundamentals in their pursuit of profit. In the background, however, the disruption prompted yet another rethink.

Week by week, the European authorities have rewritten the rule book in their increasingly desperate efforts to halt the build-up of pressure over Greece.

Now on the cards is an even bigger step into the unknown, namely the purchase by the European Central Bank (ECB) of government debt from euro countries.

Such an initiative would immediately relieve pressure on countries that are heavily dependent on the private debt markets as they could raise funds from another source.

In essence it would be a form of quantitative easing, whereby the public authorities print money to help money flowing through the financial system.

In a currency union of 16 countries, however, it is laced with legal, technical and political complexity. The more money the ECB prints, for example, the greater the danger of undermining the very stability the bank is supposed to promote.

Given the scale of public indebtedness in the euro zone, hundreds of billions of euro could be involved.

In Lisbon on Thursday afternoon, ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet said the bank’s governing council hadn’t even discussed the possibility of going down this route at its monthly meeting.

In the background, however, discreet discussions about exactly that eventuality were already under way.

Sources say Spain, Portugal and Italy are in favour of the plan. No surprise there, of course, for these countries have a voracious appetite for debt. But as always in this drama, much pivots on the response of German chancellor Angela Merkel.

She was deeply reluctant to involve Berlin in any bailout for Athens and is perceived to be equally cautious about encouraging a major expansion in the ECB’s remit.

This has its roots in Berlin’s historic attachment to tight management of the public finances. Giving the ECB power to buy government debt would be a step in the opposite direction.

But pressure is mounting.

For months, the European authorities have been buffeted by the Greek crisis, every initiative taken and every promise of support shrugged off as inadequate by markets that fear that the fiscal weakness of some euro countries is such that they might ultimately default on their obligations.

To illustrate their determination to avert the threat that the Greek crisis could be repeated, the European authorities have been talking for months about new measures to reinforce the central co-ordination of economic policy in the euro zone and toughen surveillance.

The notion works in theory. In practice, however, European governments have long flouted existing legal rules which bind them to fiscal probity and threaten them with fines if they go offside.

The rules were routinely broken, no country was ever fined and the European Commission’s push to strengthen the regime is riddled with fears that it would be politically impossible to enforce. What is more, the big fear is that it would be just another administrative tool with no real teeth.

Euro group leaders came to Brussels to draw a line under the Greek problem.

That, however, is proving very difficult to do.

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THE EUROPEAN Central Bank is under growing pressure to take fresh action to stem a widening crisis of confidence in euro zone government debt, though it remains likely for now to stop short of buying bonds.

Markets punished the euro and bonds on the weak periphery of the zone after ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said central bankers did not even discuss at its Thursday meeting what analysts have dubbed “the nuclear option”. Market conditions may not so far be bad enough to convince the ECB to take that controversial step.

Instead, the ECB’s next steps could include reinstating 12-month loans for banks at fixed interest rates, lending US dollars again, or announcing a blanket waiver of its collateral rules for all euro zone sovereign debt in money market operations.

“Market expectations certainly are that the ECB will do something, that the governments would take too long to do something or they are not willing, not able,” said Fortis economist Nick Kounis. “Therefore the ECB, which has more flexibility, should jump into that vacuum.”

The difficulty which euro zone governments had in negotiating their €110 billion bailout of Greece suggests they cannot be counted upon to agree on fast, concerted action to prevent credit jitters from spreading through global markets. That may leave the ECB as the only European institution with the ability to intervene effectively in the widening crisis.

Mr Trichet will meet other top central bankers at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel this weekend, an excellent opportunity to discuss any co-ordinated liquidity action.

There is a precedent: central bankers from Europe and North America agreed in principle on joint liquidity injections at the November 2007 BIS meeting, and actually conducted those injections a month later.

European central banks have let currency swap lines with the US Federal Reserve lapse, but these could be restarted at any time.

The ECB held a conference call with commercial banks yesterday to gauge the state of money markets.

“It is a possibility for the US Fed and the ECB to do this specific market measure in just a few hours because it is just reinstalling something that was there before,” said one money market desk head who participated in the call.

Economists said the ECB would likely hold the option of buying bonds in reserve until it had exhausted more conventional ways of flooding markets with cash.

“They are most likely to do if there is a further panic on the market and we see a further increase in the LIBOR/OIS spreads and interbank confidence for lending does subside – then I think the ECB will be the only institution that will try and calm markets down,” said Kenneth Broux from Lloyds TSB.

Many say that anything short of government bond purchases may fail to calm the markets.

EU rules prohibit the ECB from buying government bonds from the primary market, but this would not be a show-stopper.

“You have this ‘no monetary financing’, but you are allowed to buy in the secondary market, so what’s the difference?” an official involved in European banking supervision told Reuters. “Buying in the secondary market, you take the pressure, and so you push people in the primary market.”

Analysts have estimated the ECB might buy some €200 to €300 billion of bonds, about 20 to 30 per cent of estimated annual new issuance in the euro zone.

Its covered bond programme was comparatively larger, comprising about 60 per cent of new issues at the time. But some analysts say the ECB would sacrifice credibility as an inflation fighter if it bought government bonds, potentially affecting inflation expectations.

This probably explains Mr Trichet’s uncompromising tone on Thursday.

(from Reuters, May 8, 2010)